Tag Archives: assault

24 December 2012

Merry Fleetmas

By WarHamSandwich

I already gave you some basic rules for how to pick which dice to reroll for fleet, but they are specifically for charging in the open.  Charging through terrain means 3d6 drop the highest, which means more complexity in terms of which dice to reroll.

For your benefit dear reader, I’ve gone ahead and worked out the optimal rerolls, but they do require a more clunky set of guidelines than last time.  A key distinction here is that when you make your initial 3d6 roll I’ve called the lowest die the min, the highest the max, and the middle one the mid – the best choice for a reroll depends on what you got for min mid and max in your first roll.

Without further ado, here’s what you need to get the most out of Fleet in terrain:

Range Reroll all 3d6 Reroll lowest 2d6 Reroll Lowest D6
3″ 111 Not 111 Never
4″ 111 or 112 All others 122
5″ max<=2 All others 123, 133, 223
6″ All others max>=4 mid=max=3
7″ max<=3 All others max=4, mid=3 OR 4
8″ max<=3 All others mid=max=4
9″ max<=3 All others max=5, mid=4 OR 5
10″ max<=4 All others mid+max>=10
11″ max<=4 All others max=6, mid=5 OR 6
12″ No 6s One 6 Two 6s

This probably seems a bit impenetrable at first, so here’s a few notes on reading it.  The range column is the range to your target, the three other columns are the conditions for a given range that you would reroll 1, 2, or 3 dice.  For example, say you are 3” from your target, if you roll triple 1, then you should reroll all three dice, otherwise reroll the lowest two dice.

As another example, say the range is 10”, if the highest of your dice (i.e. max) is 4 or less then reroll all three, if the sum of the highest and middle dice is greater than or equal to ten then just reroll the lowest 1d6, otherwise just keep the highest die and reroll the lowest 2d6.

Happy fleeting my friends!

1 Comment   |  tags: , , , | posted in Probability, Tactics and Techniques

16 December 2012

Terrain Wreck

By WarHamSandwich

So I left you last week with a cliffhanger, namely how much does terrain impact your odds of reaching assault?  More specifically:

Is Barra the Berzerker better off charging guardsmen in the open 8” away, or going for a squad in terrain 6” away? What about with rerolls, or with Fleet?

When terrain comes into play, the assault range mechanic gets a little more complicated.  Instead of a straight 2d6 roll, it becomes 3d6 drop the highest.  To show the difference this makes, here’s a straight up comparison:

OpenVsTerrain

So the red line shows the probability of achieving an assault distance in the open, and the green shows the same for terrain.  Unsurprisingly, terrain always makes it harder to reach your opponent, but what’s more important is by how much.  I’ve highlighted two points here as they give us the answer to part of the question I posed.  At 8” the berserker has a 42% chance of reaching the guardsmen in the open, but at 6” he has a 48% chance of reaching the guard in terrain.  The guardsmen in terrain are the right choice of target.

But what about rerolls for the Icon of Wrath?  How does Fleet affect it?

AssaultAll

The chart may seem daunting at first, but hopefully a quick bit of explanation will make it more accessible.  The three red lines are the odds of assaulting a certain distance in the open with no reroll, with a reroll, and with Fleet.  The three green lines are the same but for assaults through terrain.  To address our specific question about 8” in the open vs 6” in cover I’ve again added the relevant dots with percentages.  These clearly show that in a ‘like for like’ comparison (i.e. with a reroll, with fleet) it’s always better to assault 6” in terrain than 8” in the open.  So to answer the original question, Barra the Berzerker should go for the guardsmen in cover in all of our scenarios.

That said, I didn’t build the chart just for this one scenario, you can use it to compare all kinds of situations – and can draw some interesting insights from examining it.

For example, comparing the darkest red line with the darkest green line, we can see that a unit with Fleet charging through terrain has equal or better odds of making assault than a normal unit charging the same distance in the open.

Similarly, checking out the mid-tone green line versus the dark red shows us that when assaulting though terrain units that can reroll charge distance (not Fleet) are also better than normal units charging in the open but only for distances up to 6”.  After this point we see a crossover in the lines and a normal charging in the open is better from 7” onward.

Even simply taking a look at the normal line, vs the reroll line, vs the Fleet line can really highlight how big a difference these abilities can make.

I do have to apply the caveat that my analysis assumes that the player using Fleet always makes the optimal choice for which dice to reroll.  But you’ll have to wait for those rules until next week…

1 Comment   |  tags: , , , , | posted in Probability

12 December 2012

A Pinch of Assault

By WarHamSandwich

Assault ranges were one of the biggest changes in the move to 6th edition.  In total opposition to 5th ed, we gained the right to premeasure the charge range, but lost the ability to know exactly how far we could charge.  I’m sure Heisenberg would be proud… So here’s a question for you:

Barra the Berzerker Champion is leading his unit to collect more skulls for the brass throne of mighty Khorne.  8” to his left in open terrain is a squad guardsmen, 6” to his right is another guard squad in cover – which is he more likely to reach?  If he had a banner of wrath how would that affect his chances, and what if it had been a unit of Possessed rather than of Berzerkers?

For most units in 6th ed, the charge range is determined by the sum of 2d6, or if in terrain, 3d6 dropping the highest.  The mechanics get more complicated as some units can get a reroll, and others can reroll specific dice (i.e. Fleet).  As most of you know, 7 is the average result on 2d6, but this can lead to the unfortunate assumption that you should expect at least a 7.  I’m sure as more people get some games in and launch assaults in 6th, they realise that this is not the case…

Let’s look at the no terrain mechanic first.  I’ve charted the odds of making the charge for a straight 2d6, 2d6 with a reroll, and Fleet (i.e. reroll either or both dice). AssaultOddsOpen

Unsurprisingly, having a reroll improves your chances, and being able to pick and choose which die to reroll increases your odds even further.  That assumes you know when is the best time to reroll just one dice (i.e. my results assume you make the optimal choice in all instances).

We can see from the chart that at 8″ our Berzerker friend has only a 42% chance of reaching the guardsmen in open terrain.  If his squad has the Icon of Wrath, then he can reroll charge distances, which would bump his odds of reaching them to 66%.  A Possessed Chaos Marine has Fleet, which enables him to pick and choose which dice to reroll – raising the odds of reaching those guardsmen to 72%.

To make life easier for you dear reader, for units with fleet, I’ve got some rules to make sure you make the best reroll you can:

Range: 3” or 4” reroll both

Range: 5” reroll anything ❤

Range: 6” to 10” reroll anything <4

Range: 11” reroll anything <5

Range: 12” reroll anything <6

Note1: when I say reroll anything <x I mean if both dice are <x reroll both, and if one die is <x reroll just that one.

Note2: If the above rules don’t work for a specific result then reroll the lowest die only e.g. range 10” and you roll a 4 and a 5 (say), just reroll the 4.  In the case of doubles, just arbitrarily pick one for the reroll and keep the other.

So what about the terrain?  In the question above the Guardsmen in terrain are closer, but does the terrain make it less likely to reach?  You’ll have to tune in next week for that one my friends!

3 Comments   |  tags: , , , | posted in Probability

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